NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Prayers and cheeseburgers? Chiefs have unlikely fuel for inexplicable run

Leo Chenal knew it wouldn’t hurt to pray. The NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank CenterKansas City Chiefs undefeated season and franchise-record winning streak were poised to bite the dust as Wil Lutz lined up for a 35-yard field goal with one second on the clock at Arrowhead Stadium. 

For all the close calls survived this season, the Chiefs were so doomed. Or so it seemed. 

Then came what Chenal would later describe as “complete shock.” 

The third-year linebacker was among a bevy of rushers who crashed through the protection from Lutz’s left side. Chenal dove, stretched and blocked the kick as time expired. The football hit just below the palm of his right hand. And that was that. In surviving the Broncos, 16-14, the Chiefs (9-0) found yet another way to win in what has been a season of inexplicable perfection. 

“I was really praying for something to happen,” Chenal said. “That moment is so heavy. There’s a second on the clock. They’re going to kick the field goal. You feel the weight of the moment.” 

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While Chenal paid homage to his faith after the dramatic finish, Chiefs coach Andy Reid promised to give him a cheeseburger during the postgame locker room celebration. Talk about your ingredients for a winning formula. Now that must be some creative motivation. 

Reid and his talented staff have undoubtedly developed myriad strategies to keep winning despite various forms of adversity during a campaign that includes the mission to become the first franchise to three-peat as Super Bowl champs. For the game-winning block, Chenal pointed to special teams coordinator Dave Toub for the designing the rush that broke through after so many reps on the practice field. 

But still: The way this season has gone, maybe there has been divine intervention, too. 

The season-opening victory came with a photo finish at the end, after an apparent 10-yard TD by Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely that could have tied the game with a conversion was overturned by instant replay. Likely’s right big toe landed on the chalk line in the back of the end zone. 

“He should wear white cleats next time,” Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes said. “That’s my advice for him.” 

In Week 2, they edged the Bengals as Harrison Butker nailed a 51-yard yard field goal as time expired. The kick was set up by a pass interference penalty on rookie safety Daijahn Anthony – on fourth-and-16. 

In Week 3, it took two fourth-down stops inside their 13-yard line in the final six minutes at Atlanta. And they caught a break on one of the drives when safety Bryan Cook wasn’t called for passing interference as he mauled Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts in the end zone.  

Nonetheless, it came down to Nick Bolton blowing up a fourth-and-1 run in the final minute, dropping Bijan Robinson for a 3-yard loss. 

“What great teams do, they find a way to win,” Chiefs safety Justin Reid said after the win in Atlanta. “Whatever it is. It doesn’t have to be pretty. It’s about letters.” 

As in W’s. 

The Chiefs have won seven of their games this season by a one-possession margin, and it’s been one thing after another. They trailed at some point in eight of the games. Injuries have wreaked havoc on the wide receiver corps, and running back Isiah Pacheco hasn’t played since Week 2, when he suffered what was reportedly a fractured fibula.  

They have extended their winning streak (including postseason) to 15 games despite Mahomes passing for 300 yards just once this season. It’s the longest winning streak in the NFL since the Packers won 19 in a row in 2010 and 2011. 

While the Chiefs are the fifth defending Super Bowl champion to start 9-0, they also stand as the team with the lowest point differential (+58) for any 9-0 team in history. 

Never mind that. The resilience is wrapped by poise in crunch time. In other words, they don’t beat themselves.  

“I thought we outplayed ‘em,” Broncos coach Sean Payton said after the effort on Sunday. “Nonetheless, you’ve got to beat a champion.” 

Denver upset the Chiefs last season and had them on the ropes with a 14-3 edge in the first half. The Chiefs had to settle for field goals three times after driving to the red zone. On the final drive, the Broncos drove to the 14-yard line before setting up for what could have been the winning kick. 

It looked like a real formula for beating the Chiefs. 

Just like last week. What was it that Payton said about having to beat a champion? The Bucs tied the Chiefs with a last-minute drive to force overtime last Monday night but bypassed the chance to go for a make-or-break two-point conversion attempt in the final seconds. The second-guessing intensified with the outcome. 

The Chiefs won the overtime coin toss, and the Bucs never possessed the football again as Mahomes engineered a 70-yard touchdown drive. 

That was one type of walk-off win. With Chenal’s block came another way. 

“You live for these moments,” said Mahomes. “When you grow up playing football, you live for that walk-off, no matter what it is. It’s special.” 

Mahomes said he was “sick” that he missed on throws late in game that could have connected with Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy for touchdowns.  

“If we make those two throws,” he added, “we’re not relying on the block by Leo.” 

Or needing prayers. 

Then again, the Chiefs have to be used to these nerve-wracking finishes. Who knows? Maybe they’ll win one of these games with a “fumble-rooski.” 

It sure won’t be easier next Sunday in Buffalo, where the Chiefs won in the AFC divisional playoffs in January. The Bills (8-2) are one of the hottest teams in the league (again), eager for revenge. It looms as perhaps the stiffest test yet for the Chiefs to stay undefeated. 

Predicting how it goes down is another matter, as the Chiefs keep showing us. 

“It’s a week-to-week league,” Mahomes said. 

And how. And sometimes so hard to explain.